Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 44.359002 52.234161 60.833750 70.887137 82.281464 94.758032 109.415262
2024-12-29 33.388317 44.041872 56.754285 72.889525 92.658340 115.916868 145.162513
2025-01-05 25.951359 37.495692 52.267466 72.232178 98.148403 130.263559 172.628966
2025-01-12 22.782090 35.422628 52.518780 76.777880 109.679425 152.054094 209.946167
2025-01-19 17.734518 29.776267 47.021562 72.727038 109.139126 157.832998 226.636478
2025-01-26 15.640335 27.979649 46.494323 75.199469 117.273476 175.201975 259.188299
2025-02-02 14.551909 27.506796 47.738978 80.167862 129.072825 198.041635 300.156439
2025-02-09 13.036359 26.073826 47.278645 82.415683 136.915399 215.596946 334.484961
2025-02-16 11.567266 24.469696 46.308334 83.679300 143.222938 231.114340 366.476290
2025-02-23 10.100755 22.624029 44.689997 83.677406 147.457879 243.655676 394.561827
2025-03-02 8.582173 20.421488 42.178162 81.908689 148.676882 251.596824 416.050182
2025-03-09 7.707126 19.332183 41.483375 83.085188 154.597076 266.846173 448.960285
2025-03-16 5.981484 16.292546 37.068954 77.786293 150.190189 266.937351 460.643087
2025-03-23 5.323083 15.456583 36.766241 79.887351 158.517434 287.831221 505.916260
2025-03-30 4.490183 14.025100 35.063340 79.173211 161.851102 300.764576 539.191265
2025-04-06 4.257137 14.006789 36.258569 84.076041 175.413245 331.129552 601.591413
2025-04-13 3.347538 12.014462 32.928804 79.706766 171.812057 332.525252 616.962389
2025-04-20 3.053399 11.623491 33.087506 82.373890 181.350683 356.654389 670.666529
2025-04-27 2.950345 11.764059 34.486505 87.730178 196.277253 390.726260 742.212147
2025-05-04 2.686366 11.353071 34.513838 90.152094 205.683621 415.511296 798.977530
2025-05-11 2.398036 10.788049 34.080224 91.513211 213.069787 436.998419 850.871344
2025-05-18 2.084157 10.045795 33.085072 91.511171 217.710832 453.714382 895.110350
2025-05-25 1.739051 9.078017 31.341491 89.605906 218.331947 463.083257 926.833513